Kuwait Offers Oil to Asian Buyers for First Time Since Iran War Began

In a significant sign that Gulf crude is once again finding its way to market, Kuwait is offering at least 4 million barrels of its main export-grade crude to Asian refiners—the first such sales to the region since the Iran war erupted in late February 2026. The volumes are loaded onto two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and targeted at buyers in China and South Korea, according to traders familiar with the matter.

The move comes as the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most critical energy chokepoint—has been under effective blockade and heavy risk since early March. Yet the Kuwait tender is the latest evidence that oil and LNG are quietly slipping through the strait in greater volumes than headline disruption numbers suggest. Markets appear to be pricing exactly that reality: Brent crude hovered near $92–93 per barrel on June 9, 2026, well off its April peaks above $130 but still elevated, with analysts increasingly forecasting stabilization in the $90 range rather than a fresh spike.

The Hormuz Reality: “Sneaking” Tankers and Stealth Tactics

Pre-crisis, the strait carried roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and products—about 20% of global seaborne oil trade—and roughly 20% of global LNG, almost all of it from Qatar and the UAE.

Since the conflict escalated, daily transits plunged from 125–140 vessels to a trickle, with many days seeing single-digit or low-double-digit passages.

Yet the numbers tell a story of persistent, if risky, flow. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler tracked nearly 900 outbound tankers that “went dark” (turned off AIS transponders) and squeezed through the strait between March 1 and May 19 alone. In May, roughly two-thirds of outbound oil tankers used shadow-fleet tactics to evade detection.

Recent weeks have seen incremental increases: supertankers carrying Saudi, UAE, and now Kuwaiti crude have exited, often with transponders off, bound for Asia.

Qatar’s LNG exports—historically the largest single source through Hormuz—have followed the same playbook. Energy News Beat has documented QatarEnergy successfully moving at least its ninth known LNG tanker (the Al Daayen) through the strait over the weekend of June 7–8, bound for China after going dark in the Gulf.

Earlier cargoes included the Al Sahla (third known exit, mid-May, also to China), Al Kharaitiyat, Mihzem, Fuwairit, Al Rayyan, and Al Hamra.

ADNOC tankers have employed identical “go-dark” tactics.

These are not full pre-war volumes—LNG traffic was near-zero for weeks after the outbreak, and oil flows remain a fraction of normal—but the cumulative effect is real. Bypass pipelines (UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah and Saudi Red Sea lines) add another 3–5 million bpd of capacity outside the strait, while U.S. exports and demand destruction have helped offset losses.

Asia in the Crosshairs

Asia, which imports roughly 60% of its crude from the Middle East and relies heavily on Qatari LNG, sits squarely in the eye of the storm. As OilPrice.com noted in its June 9 analysis, the effective closure of Hormuz has already cost the region the equivalent of 15 million barrels per day in lost Middle East output. Iraq’s production has collapsed from over 4 million bpd to 1.4 million bpd, and regional suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE have seen sharp export drops.

Yet the quiet resumption of Kuwaiti and Qatari cargoes—plus stealth tanker runs—suggests Asia is not facing a total cutoff. Chinese and South Korean refiners are once again able to bid on Kuwait crude, and Qatari LNG is reaching Tianjin and other terminals. The market’s muted reaction (no fresh surge past $100 this month) reflects that partial supply relief.

Will Prices Spike Again—or Hold the $90 Line?

The oil market’s pricing mechanism has proven remarkably resilient. Early-war fears of $130–$150 Brent proved overstated once inventories began drawing and alternative supply plus stealth flows kicked in. As of June 9, Brent sits around $92–93, down sharply from May peaks.

Analysts are now converging on a “$90-ish” range through the rest of 2026, assuming:

Continued incremental tanker transits (dark or otherwise).
Gradual reopening or tolerated limited traffic as diplomacy advances.
U.S. shale and non-OPEC growth cushioning the blow.
Asian demand response and strategic reserve releases.

EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent averaging $89/bbl in Q4 2026 as Gulf production and shipping recover, even if full pre-war flows take longer.

Goldman Sachs and others have similarly revised forecasts toward the low $90s by year-end, citing slower but visible normalization.

A major new escalation or prolonged full closure could still trigger a non-linear spike, but the evidence of Kuwaiti VLCCs loading for Asia and Qatar’s ninth LNG cargo slipping through suggests the market is betting on muddling through—not meltdown.

Bottom line: More oil and LNG are sneaking through the Strait of Hormuz than the headlines imply. That stealth supply, combined with bypass routes and global buffers, is exactly why the market can still price crude in the $90 range today—and why a dramatic new price spike looks less likely than a grinding return toward balance.