We had a great discussion, and the global oil and gas markets have been changed permanently.
“ Iran will have permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz. As though that necessarily, in and of itself, is bullish for oil prices. I would argue that, in fact, it isn’t. “
Doomberg, Substack Author, Energy Analyst
This was another great discussion with Doomberg, and we had over 100k listens and views, plus even more impact from social media during his last visit. This discussion included several key quotes, and I have about 10 of them listed below the video.
Make no mistake, the global energy, oil, and gas markets have changed permanently.
“Energy security starts at home. Energy dominance is displayed through your exports. “
Stu Turley, Energy News Beat Podcast Host
1. Geopolitical Control of the Strait of Hormuz
The hosts explore Iran’s potential permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz and what this means for global energy markets. The key insight is that while many assume this would drive oil prices higher, the real issue is about sanctions and U.S. dollar hegemony—Iran would need sanctions lifted to collect tolls, which threatens the dollar’s position in the global financial system. Long-term, alternative pipelines and infrastructure will mitigate any supply disruptions.
2. North American Energy Dominance
A major focus is on how the Western Hemisphere (particularly the U.S. and Canada) is becoming an energy powerhouse through:
Natural gas production and LNG exports (growing from near-zero to ~30 BCF/day by decade’s end)
Oil development in Argentina (Vaca Marta), Guyana, Venezuela, and Brazil
Pipeline infrastructure like Mountain Valley Pipeline
The concept of “energy security starts at home” and exporting energy as a display of dominance
3. Qatar’s LNG Disruptions and Helium Crisis
While Qatar supplies 20% of global LNG, the real story is helium—Qatar controls about a third of the global helium market. Helium is critical for semiconductors and MRIs, and there’s no easy replacement. Recent attacks have disrupted Qatar’s production.
4. The AI Bubble and Market Dynamics
The hosts discuss:
The SpaceX IPO as a potential “top of the Ponzi cycle” with a $1.75 trillion valuation
How AI is simultaneously a transformative technology AND a massive bubble (like railroads and the internet before it)
The importance of AI validation and verification—AI without accountability wastes money
How companies must be built with AI at their core to survive; large legacy companies may struggle to adapt
5. AI Implementation and Business Transformation
Practical discussion on:
How AI can eliminate inefficiencies (e.g., reducing invoice processing from 2 months to 2 minutes)
The need for human oversight and “AI-aware” workers vs. “AI-ignorant” ones
Authentic human content creation remaining valuable in an AI-saturated world
How small, lean businesses with owner mentality adapt faster than bloated corporations
The hosts predict a shift toward new trading blocks: the U.S., India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, UAE, China, and Japan forming alternative economic structures, with the EU and UK potentially falling behind.
Some of the key articles and points that we were talking about.
One can’t help but marvel at how politicians have driven an artificial wedge between Canada and the US, brimming as both countries are with decent, caring, and giving people. The two nations share a culture rooted in pioneering independence and are blessed with a seemingly endless natural bounty that underlies their respective wealth, making the synergies of collaboration far more lucrative than the spoils of competition.Despite these inherent ties, global energy buyers increasingly view Canada as a source of diversification away from excessive reliance on its southern neighbor. Indeed, the ocean zonejust beyond Newfoundland is holding an attractive energy bounty, rich with a fuel that Europe finds itself in desperately short supply of:
“There’s an estimated $400 billion worth of natural gas in an ocean basin off Newfoundland, and one analyst believes that assessment could position the province as a major player in the natural gas sector. On Monday, June 1, the Newfoundland and Labrador government released the second phase of a resource assessment for the Jeanne d’Arc Basin, a shallow-water area 350 kilometres east of St. John’s.
The first study of the basin assessed resources available within existing discovery and production licences. It estimated the areas contained somewhere between 8.1 to 11.3 trillion cubic feet [tcf] of recoverable natural gas. The second phase identified an additional 10.2 to 25.5 trillion cubic feet in adjacent and unlicensed areas. Combining the results and the range of estimates, the studies have determined that the best estimate is likely 27.6 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas.”
While proximity to Europe would advantage the shipping of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from offshore Newfoundland, such logistical considerations are hardly determinative. Whether these resources ultimately get developed is instead a complex mix of political, regulatory, and economic considerations, the inspection of which lays bare both the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney works to unstick his country’s energy. Will he get it done?
Doomberg’s Point on Iran is spot on, and the changes we are seeing may be permanent. How they shake out has yet to be written, but here is some of the back story we were talking about.
Home>Crude Oil>The Hormuz Squeeze Is Redrawing Global Oil and Gas Markets for Good – By Energy News Beat Channel
The Strait of Hormuz has long been the world’s most critical energy chokepoint—handling roughly 20 million barrels per day (b/d) of oil and a significant share of global LNG before the 2026 crisis. But Iran’s de facto closure of the strait since late February 2026, amid escalating conflict, has forced a permanent rethink. Even if shipping resumes, the “Hormuz Squeeze” has accelerated diversification that markets will not reverse. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq are fast-tracking bypass infrastructure. Non-Middle East producers in Latin America, the U.S., and beyond are ramping up exploration and LNG exports. And consuming nations are reevaluating energy security through a harder lens of resilience over reliance.
The Wall Street Journal captured this shift early: Gulf states are investing heavily in pipelines, rail, storage, trucking, and new ports to bypass the strait. What began as a crisis response is becoming structural change.
Iran’s Enduring Grip: No Nuclear Deal, No Surrender of Control
Under the scenario outlined—where Iran retains full control of the Strait of Hormuz and refuses any meaningful nuclear monitoring, material surrender, or de-escalation—the risk premium on Gulf exports becomes permanent. A recent X post by Mario Nawfal highlighted backchannel diplomacy: Iran relayed three conditions to Washington via Pakistan, including a veiled nuclear demonstration threat (“a detonation of a nuclear device on Iranian soil… as an irreversible sovereign demonstration of capability to control escalation dominance”). The immediate silence from Washington underscored the new reality: Iran’s nuclear ambitions and strategic leverage are non-negotiable.
This locks in long-term market fragmentation. Oil and LNG flows that once relied on the strait now carry a persistent geopolitical surcharge. Buyers will pay premiums for non-Gulf barrels, and producers outside the region will capture market share.
Pipelines: The New Bypass Highways
Gulf exporters have dusted off—and accelerated—decades-old contingency plans:
Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline (Petroline) runs 1,200 km from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea. Capacity up to 7 million b/d (with ~5 million b/d exportable). Flows have surged since the closure, rerouting crude away from Hormuz. From Yanbu, oil can reach Europe via the SUMED pipeline through Egypt.
UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP): Links Habshan fields to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman (~1.5–1.8 million b/d). Already handling over half of UAE exports pre-crisis; flows to Fujairah jumped post-closure. A second parallel pipeline is now ~50% complete and on track for 2027 completion, effectively doubling bypass capacity.
Iraq’s Routes: The Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline to Turkey’s Mediterranean coast has ramped to 250–650 kb/d and could hit 1.6 million b/d. A new Basra–Haditha line (planned 2.25–2.5 million b/d) is in early construction, targeting 2026–2027 flows.
These pipelines cannot fully replace the Strait’s ~20 million b/d capacity, but they provide 4.7–5.5 million b/d of immediate relief and growing redundancy.
Tanker traffic has shifted dramatically: vessels now queue around Africa or reroute via Red Sea ports.
Accelerated Exploration Away from Middle East Choke Points
The squeeze has supercharged upstream investment outside the Gulf:
Latin America leads non-OPEC growth. Brazil’s pre-salt fields (Buzios, Mero) and new FPSOs pushed output toward 4 million b/d in 2025, with more additions in 2026. Guyana’s Stabroek Block (ExxonMobil-led) hit over 900 kb/d by late 2025 and eyes 1.7 million b/d by 2030. Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale is booming, with oil output forecast to reach 810 kb/d in 2026. Together, these three countries account for half of projected global crude growth in 2026.
U.S. shale and offshore continue steady expansion, feeding both domestic needs and LNG feedgas.
Africa (Namibia, Angola deepwater) and other basins see renewed interest as “safe” barrels command premiums.
These barrels bypass Hormuz entirely—no tankers needed through contested waters.
LNG Markets: From Qatar Shock to Atlantic Basin Dominance
Qatar—historically the Gulf’s LNG powerhouse—has been hit hardest. Iranian strikes damaged Ras Laffan, sidelining ~17% of its capacity (12.8 million tons per year) for 3–5 years. Production halted at parts of the complex, and a strait closure blocked shipping. Europe and Asia face multi-year supply gaps.
Enter the new LNG export hubs:
United States: The undisputed leader. Existing terminals (Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, etc.) plus new ones like Plaquemines (Phases 1–2), Golden Pass, CP2, and Corpus Christi Stage 3 are flooding the market. U.S. capacity is exploding, with exports projected to grow sharply in 2025–2026. Atlantic routes avoid Hormuz entirely.
Canada: LNG Canada doubling output; Pacific Coast projects advancing.
Australia and others: Steady but now gaining share as Gulf LNG falters.
By 2030, non-Middle East LNG (led by the U.S.) will dominate flexible supply, shifting trade patterns permanently toward the Atlantic and away from vulnerable chokepoints.
Source: SPglobal.com
Energy Security in a New Light
The Hormuz Squeeze forces a paradigm shift. Nations can no longer treat Gulf supply as a reliable baseload. Strategies now emphasize:Diversification: Prioritize U.S./Latin American oil and LNG over Gulf volumes.
Infrastructure: More cross-border pipelines, storage, and floating regasification.
Resilience: Strategic reserves, domestic shale/LNG, and accelerated renewables where viable.
Geopolitical hedging: Long-term contracts with “safe” producers; renewed focus on overland pipelines (e.g., Central Asia to China/Europe).
Europe, Asia, and even China are already pivoting—ramping U.S. LNG, eyeing Latin American barrels, and exploring non-Gulf routes. The era of cheap, concentrated Gulf supply is ending. Markets are fragmenting into more resilient, multi-polar networks.
The Long-Term Outlook: A Redrawn Map
With Iran’s control of Hormuz and nuclear ambitions intact, the global oil and gas map is redrawn for good. Prices carry a permanent risk premium. Non-Gulf producers thrive. Pipelines become strategic arteries. LNG trade shifts westward. And energy security is no longer about volume alone—it’s about avoiding single points of failure.
The Hormuz Squeeze didn’t just disrupt flows. It accelerated the future.
We even talked about AI and data centers and covered some key points.
“ There’s a giant bubble going on. A lot of people are going to lose a lot of money, and AI is going to radically change things. “
Doomberg, SubStack Author, Energy Analyst
“ AI without validation and verification is worthless. “
Stu Turley, Energy News Beat Podcast Host
We even talked about John Brewton’s AI Capabilities with validation and real-world use of Data2 products. There will be two types of companies. Those who are successful using AI through validation, and those who go bankrupt. We are seeing cracks in the AI market, and those who don’t understand how to implement the best solutions will overspend on implementations and fail to realize the savings everyone expects.
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