In a whirlwind week of high-stakes diplomacy, the United States appears poised to secure a temporary reprieve from China’s tightening grip on rare earth elements and critical minerals—key ingredients in everything from electric vehicle batteries to fighter jets. Beijing’s recent export controls, rolled out under Announcements No. 61 and 62 of 2025, have rattled global supply chains, imposing licensing requirements on refined metals, alloys, and magnets that slow shipments without outright banning them.
But amid escalating trade tensions, President Donald Trump’s administration is leveraging negotiations to push for delays, signaling a potential de-escalation before these measures fully bite. As Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent put it bluntly, the U.S. is facing a “nonmarket economy” in China that demands aggressive countermeasures.
This article dives into the week’s announcements, Bessent’s key statements, America’s accelerating progress toward self-reliance, and the starkly different path facing the European Union.
Trump’s Diplomatic Push: A Week of Deals and Deadlines
The past seven days have been a masterclass in Trump’s deal-making style, blending public bravado with backchannel bargaining to address China’s resource weaponization. On October 26, the U.S. Trade Representative’s office announced early consensus in trade talks with Beijing, paving the way for a leaders’ review that could include deferring expanded export controls on rare earths.
Trump himself touted fresh agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia on critical minerals trade, aimed at diversifying away from China’s dominance—where it controls over 65% of global rare earth production.
These pacts focus on joint mining and processing ventures, echoing a broader U.S. strategy to “break free” of Beijing’s stranglehold through unconventional alliances.
Earlier in the week, Trump hosted Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Washington, where the two nations inked a “Framework for Securing Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths.” This builds on a prior U.S.-Australia deal to counter Beijing’s export curbs, emphasizing shared stockpiles and tech transfers.
The timing couldn’t be more urgent: China’s Ministry of Commerce has already approved just 25% of export license applications, halting production lines from Detroit to Dortmund.
Trump’s team is betting that these multilateral moves, combined with tariff threats, will force China’s hand—potentially delaying full implementation of the controls until 2026.
Critics argue Beijing’s restrictions are a calculated response to U.S. chip export bans, but experts see overreach: China’s own economy relies on rare earth exports for revenue, and prolonged disruptions could backfire, hurting Xi Jinping’s domestic agenda.
As one analyst noted, “China has found Trump’s pain point,” but the pain is mutual.
Secretary Bessent’s Blunt Assessment: “Deferral is the Win We Need”
At the center of these talks stands Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whose weekend interview on NBC’s Meet the Press crystallized the administration’s stance. Bessent anticipated that an emerging U.S.-China agreement would “defer China’s expanded export controls on rare earth minerals and resume buying” of U.S. goods, framing it as a pragmatic truce rather than a surrender.
He dismissed Beijing’s accusations of U.S. “panic-mongering” as “grossly distorted,” urging China to back down from its licensing regime before it escalates into a full trade war.
Bessent’s rhetoric underscores a shift toward assertive industrial policy. Speaking at a Washington forum, he argued that confronting China’s dominance requires the U.S. to “exercise industrial policy” more aggressively, including potential government takeovers of key firms to secure supplies.
This isn’t about easing U.S. restrictions on high-tech exports like chips—in fact, Bessent has ruled out any quid pro quo there.
Instead, it’s a signal that delay is victory: By staving off immediate bans, the U.S. buys time to onshore production without immediate economic shockwaves.His comments have drawn fire from Beijing, which views the controls as defensive against “U.S. hegemony.”
Yet Bessent’s optimism about a “tentative deal” suggests quiet progress, with sources indicating talks could wrap before the APEC summit in November.
America’s Fast-Track to Independence: Progress at Warp SpeedWhile negotiating delays, the U.S. isn’t standing still. The Trump administration’s “Unleashing American Energy” executive order, issued on Inauguration Day 2025, has supercharged efforts to build domestic capacity.
The Department of the Interior’s draft 2025 Critical Minerals List expanded to 54 commodities, up from prior years, reflecting surging demand for EVs and renewables.
U.S. reserves of rare earths climbed to 30 million tons this year, per USGS data, but the real momentum lies in partnerships and funding.
A landmark $5 billion critical minerals fund, launched October 23 with private investors, targets mining and processing in allied nations.
Proposals for an “Operation Warp Speed for Rare Earths”—modeled on the COVID vaccine blitz—call for rapid federal investment to match China’s decades-long strategy.
The result? Shovel-ready projects are proliferating: New refineries in Texas and Nevada are slated to come online by 2027, reducing import reliance from 100% for some minerals to under 50%.
As one report put it, the past week “turbocharged Western resolve,” with U.S. deals accelerating a “global realignment.”
This path forward looks promising—agile, funded, and alliance-driven. If delays hold, America could emerge not just resilient, but dominant.The EU’s Bind: Decoupling Dreams Meet Harsh RealitiesAcross the Atlantic, the picture is far bleaker. The European Union, heavily dependent on China for 98% of its rare earth needs, is scrambling to respond to the export squeeze.
EU leaders are set to discuss countermeasures at an upcoming summit, but with production halts already widespread, the bloc’s vaunted Critical Raw Materials Act feels like too little, too late.
A July 2025 European Parliament resolution decried China’s restrictions as “economic coercion,” yet implementation lags.
Dialogue with Beijing via the upgraded EU-China export control framework has yielded vague promises of “easing turmoil,” but disruptions persist—especially for defense rearmament, where rare earth magnets are irreplaceable.
Analysts are pessimistic: Europe’s manufacturing base is “stuck” in China’s orbit, with decoupling requiring billions in unbudgeted investments and years of supply chain rewiring.
Temporary restrictions might favor Beijing short-term, but long-term, the EU risks being sidelined in the U.S.-led realignment.
Without bolder action—like joint ventures with the U.S. or Australia—Brussels’ chance to break free looks slim.
A Delicate Balance: Delay Today, Dominance Tomorrow?
China’s flirtation with bans has exposed the fragility of global minerals trade, but Trump’s week of wins suggests the U.S. can turn delay into durable advantage. Bessent’s steady hand in negotiations buys breathing room, while America’s warp-speed investments forge a new era of energy security. For the EU, the wake-up call is louder: Decouple or be decoupled from the future. As tensions simmer toward Xi-Trump’s potential summit, one thing is clear—the race for critical minerals is no longer about extraction; it’s about endurance. Energy News Beat will keep tracking this fault line—stay tuned.
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